Leadership
Why Do the Democrats Hold an Electoral College Advantage?
As the 2016 US presidential race moves into the final ninety days, there’s been a lot of talk about the Democratic Party’s Electoral College edge that could lead Hillary Clinton to victory.
This advantage is well known, but I’ve never heard anyone explain it Did it just emerge out of nowhere? Did the Dems buy off some states that they now hold in their pocket? Or is there something we can learn about the Electoral College that might give us our marching orders?
Much is at stake in the 2016 contest and beyond. So why do the Democrats hold an Electoral College advantage?
First of all, let talk about the US Electoral College of which most American voters know very little.
It’s an institution that elects the President and VP every four years. Citizens do not directly elect the president or the vice president. Instead, they elect representatives called “electors”, who generally pledge to vote for the leaders their states have chosen via the popular vote.
Electors are apportioned to each of the 50 states as well as to the District of Columbia. The number of electors in each state is equal to the number of members of Congress to which the state is entitled, while the Twenty-third Amendment grants the District of Columbia the same number of electors as the least populous state, currently three.
Therefore, there are currently 538 electors, corresponding to the 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus the three additional electors from the District of Columbia. The Constitution bars any federal official, elected or appointed, from being an elector.
Except for the electors in Maine and Nebraska, electors are elected on a “winner-take-all” basis. That is, all electors pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in a state become electors for that state. Maine and Nebraska use the “congressional district method”, selecting one elector within each congressional district by popular vote and selecting the remaining two electors by a statewide popular vote.
The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) for the office of president is elected to that office.
The Twelfth Amendment also provides for what happens if the Electoral College fails to elect a president or vice president. If no candidate receives a majority for president, then the House of Representatives will select the president, with each state delegation (instead of each representative) having only one vote.
If no candidate receives a majority for vice president, then the Senate will select the vice president, with each senator having one vote. On four occasions, most recently in 2000, the Electoral College system has resulted in the election of a candidate who did not receive the most popular votes in the election (George W. Bush).
Recently, a Republican strategist suggested that John Kasich choose a mainstream Democrat from another state and run a “Unity Ticket” against both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. He noted that if these two candidates win their home states, then neither Hillary nor Trump can reach 270 electoral votes, thus throwing the election to Congress as outlined above.)
That’s your civics lesson of the day.
Why did our founders set up this system instead of just using a direct vote of the people?
Because they were smart. They realized rightly that “direct democracy” easily devolves into mob rule and group think. They also didn’t want the bigger states dominating the little ones. That’s another form of tyranny by the masses. They wanted the smaller states to have a fair say–for their votes to be meaningful.
So the Electoral College was born. It’s really a brilliant design to balance the power of large and small.
This brings us to the advantage of the Democratic Party in the Electoral College. Here’s the math to make it simple:
- At the present time, eighteen states in America reliably vote Democrat in every presidential election. Those states are on the west coast and eastern seaboard–and include some very large states such as California and New York. These eighteen states–called the “Blue Wall”–contain 237 electoral votes–just 23 short of what’s needed to win.
- Another fourteen states–most of which are in the Mid-west and South have reliably voted Republican for years. But they are states with smaller populations and thus smaller Electoral College votes. The red States make up 101 electoral votes.
This gives the Democratic Party a huge advantage. Their candidate, unless they’re a murderer or spouse-beater, has a pretty strong lock on 247 electoral votes. They only need to snag a few more states–like Ohio and Florida–or any other combination of smaller states to win.
On the other hand, the Republican standard-bearer needs to run the table of many states to add enough electoral votes to their 101 to triumph.
Thus the “Blue Wall” electoral “lock” of the Democrats. This has been true of every presidential election since Ronald Reagan swept 49 states in 1988. Since that time, the “Blue Wall” has emerged to frustrate many Republican candidates for president.
Why is this so?
Here is the reality behind the electoral math.
1. America is in a world view battle in which the Judeo-Christian worldview is being overtaken by the secular/atheist worldview.
In terms of colors, biblical faith equals red and secular progressive equals blue. Over the past five decades more people have become secular than have been born again in Christ.
2. Secular group think has mushroomed in the urban cities of the west and east coasts.
Take my own state of Washington. For the past few decades, if you color a map of Washington by the votes of each county, then your map would look almost entirely red (Judeo-Christian) except for a blue circle in King County (secular) where Seattle is located. By glancing at the map you might think that Washington is a Red State with a blue dot. But, over half of the state’s population lives in that King County blue circle–so WA is usually locked down for the Dems.
Same is true of Oregon (Portland dominating the redness of the rest of the state), and also California where secular, urban Los Angeles gives the country’s most populous state a definite blue edge.
It’s assumed by most people that Hillary Clinton will win this secular “Left Coast.” Urban folks near the Pacific Ocean have tended to turn away from God, biblical morality and traditional values.
The same is true of most of the city-dwellers of the east coast–where much of the national population lies. Big urban states like New York and New Jersey are Democratic strongholds, and the other cities in other eastern and Midwestern states have become breeding grounds for Democratic votes.
3. The secularizing of the public schools (latter 20th century) and the radical atheism that now rules in academia on a collegiate level is a huge mega-phone for atheism.
Most of our colleges, both public (i.e. state universities) and private (Ivy League Schools) are in the cities growing humanist/secularist philosophy like a sociological cancer. They are also churning out “blue votes” by focusing on humanist causes and bashing those who believe in God and share conservative values.
The atheists have understood the following maxim better than God-fearing people: The philosophy of the schools in one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next.
4. Most of the mainstream media emanates from the cities and multiplies the liberal bias.
Think of the power of Hollywood in the west and Manhattan in the east. The majority of the media outlets in these areas pump out secular progressive news slants on a daily basis ridiculing Christians, advocating for abortion, promoting sexual deviancy, pushing for bgger government, and pointing the culture to man-made solutions instead of humble submission to a Higher Power.
The media are primary sponsors of the growing “Blue Wall.”
5. Human depravity makes it easier to be selfish, secular, and me-oriented rather than developing the strength of godly character.
It’s easier to sin than to be virtuous and self-controlled. So it’s easier to be a Democrat who wants the government to give us everything (like free college education) than to be a Republican and believes you need to work for it and pay for it yourself.
Being liberal caters to the flesh. Judeo-Christians values require character and self-control.
6. There is a devil and a satanic kingdom who are conspiring to bring down the heritage and exceptionalism of the United States through atheist propaganda.
We are not just fighting human words. There is a demonic contingent behind the issues that are trying to destroy both people and nations.
What must the people of God do to knock down the Blue “Iron Curtain”?
First, understand how it was built. Second, pray for God’s awakening of his people to do his will on earth. Third, share our faith with passion as never before! Fourth, possess a greater long-range vision for our neighborhoods, schools, universities, the media and all aspects of government than the other side does.
May God help us.
What the Presidential Tickets Tell Us About America
Tonight, the first woman in American history to represent her party for president of the United States–Hillary Rodham Clinton–will make her acceptance speech before the Democratic National Convention.
Last week, the Republicans nominated the first non-politician/non military person–businessman Donald Trump–to head a presidential ticket. Trump chose Indiana governor Mike Pence as his running mate and Hillary Clinton selected Virginia senator (and former governor) Tim Kaine as her VP.
The presidential tickets are now set and in fourteen weeks, we with choose our 45th chief executive.
What do this year’s choices tell us about America?
We need to be constantly reminded that we live in a brief corridor of history where people pick their leaders. Abraham Lincoln called it “government of the people, by the people, and for the people.”
In other words, we are the government. We vote for our leaders, they represent us in enacting and enforcing our laws, and those laws are meant to benefit the people. That formula–“people power”–is what made America (among other things) a very exceptional nation.
It was not always so.
On a recent trip to Asia, I read a book called The Story of the World, Part I by Susan Wise Bauer. It gives a fascinating portrayal of the broad strokes of history–from the beginning of time to the end of the Roman Empire (Part II covers the Middle Ages to the present).
If any one thing characterized life during the past seven thousand years, it was this:
Despots. Tyrants. All powerful kings.
The Bible mentions Nimrod and Babel. Then came Sargon in Sumeria, the Pharoahs in Egypt, and numerous Babylonian and Assyrian dictators. For a brief time, Greece and Rome returned some power to the people in their early city-states, but eventually they fell to the likes of Alexander the Great and numerous Caesars.
In other parts of the world it was the same story. Whether India, China, or the ancient New World, warrior chiefs or strong men rose to the top of their tribes and ruled their societies. As I read chapter after chapter of The Story of the World, it struck me that most people in history lived in daily fear of being wiped out by the nearest tribe, chieftain, emperor or strong man and lived their lives doing what the dictator told them to do.
Elections and freedom didn’t exist.
Until America.
Of course, hundreds of years of the development of Christian civilization in Europe paved the way. As European people came to Christ and began reading and applying the Bible to everyday life, human rights rose in people’s hearts and rulers began to be replaced by laws.
For 6500 years it was Rex rex–the King is king (you do what he says). But, over the past five hundred years, humankind took a giant leap.
Lex rex. The Law is king (Do what the people want).
America was the world’s first biblically-oriented society that put that truth into governmental form.
This Sunday night, I encourage you to watch Bill O’Reilly’s Legends and Lies docu-drama on the Fox News Network. For the past two months it’s been the most watched weekend program in the nation. It chronicles the truths and myths behind the American Revolution. This week it will focus on America’s first president, General George Washington.
For those of us who’ve enjoyed free elections for the past 230 years, it’s hard to believe that many early American colonists wanted to make George Washington the first king of the colonies. Why? Because kings were all they’d ever known (throughout history). And kings were often tyrants–just like King George of England.
Human beings had always been dominated by strong men.
America exceptionally led the world into freedom by rejecting power at the top and giving it to a “moral and religious people” (John Adam’s words) who would govern themselves through laws made and enforced by their representatives.
“Government of the people, by the people, and for the people.”
That was the essence of the American Revolution. It was an idea that changed the world.
In the 6500 years of “dictator” history, kings did not always reflect their subjects. Good societies could be led by evil tyrants or vice versa. Occasionally in history God used good leaders to bring renewal to the people (David, Hezekiah and Josiah et al). Other times, bad rulers were a sign of judgment to a back-slidden nation (e.g. Manasseh, Nebuchanezzar).
In modern free societies who elect their leaders, there’s a clearer correlation between magistrates and people. Good people (moral and religious) generally vote for righteous leaders. Bad societies (immoral and selfish) usually vote for narcissists like themselves.
Thus, leaders of free voting nations are “mirrors of the people.”
So, what do the two presidential tickets tell us about the American people in 2016?
1. A majority of Americans (or an influential minority of those who vote) are atheists or secularists. This is the first election in post-Christian America. Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton (despite what they say) are anchored to biblical truth. Trump is a populist bully and Clinton is a corrupt, career politician. One’s a bellicose outsider and the other is a sleazy insider. The majorities of both parties voted for these man-centered politicians–telling you much about themselves.
2. A good portion of the American electorate is angry–not a great virtue. Trump supporters want strength and less government. Their strongest moral value is work ethic = I can do it myself. This is Trump’s message and that of his impressive children. It’s not “I can do all things through Christ” (Ephesians 4:13) but rather “I can get it done if I work hard enough.”
Clinton supporters are just as self-oriented, but from the opposite tack. They want America to be weak in the world and receive as many entitlements as they can get (free health care, college tuition, etc.–hey, why don’t we throw in free cars and mortgages?). Bernie Sander’s audiences epitomized this nanny state consumerism. Their message is: “You do it for ME!”
Each of these candidates represent flip sides of the same coin of self. It’s either protect me or give me. Both ideas will erode the power of liberty in the American nation.
3. Mike Pence and Tim Kaine represent America’s Christian past–now a minority view in the country. That’s why they’re in the second slot, not the first chair. On the Republican side, many biblically-grounded candidates were voted down in favor of the strong man, Trump. Pence is a sound evangelical who would have made a fine president. He’s “Christian, conservative and Republican” in that order. Time Kaine is a former Catholic missionary who’s personally pro-life–kind of a 21st century JFK.
Both were chosen because Trump and Clinton recognize their need for the “God-vote” in the country to put them over the top. In truth, I’d love to see both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton step down and let Pence and Kaine run for the highest office in the land. Their match-up would be worthy of our heritage. Unfortunately, in 2016, they are just a faint echo of a once Judeo-Christian, freedom-loving society.
4. Hillary Clinton probably has the edge because those who want free stuff are more united than those who want to be protected. Even with the splinter of the Sander’s insurgency, Democrats tend to coalesce around their standard bearer (90%). This year, due to Trump’s obvious faults, Republicans are in the 70% support range. That probably means a third Obama term and accelerating American decline.
Look in the mirror, America! These four faces are staring back at you:
- God-loving and fearing conservatives. (Pence)
- Religious moderates (Kaine).
- Angry pragmatists – Trump-eteers, and
- Angry narcissists – Clintonites
But anger is at the top of the ticket with godly values along for the ride. How foolish we are. I wish it were Pence versus Kaine. But that train has left the station in 2016.
Keep praying for God’s break-out among our “leaders”–we, the people.
Reviving America: The Way of the Cruz
I don’t think I need to convince anybody that American culture and politics are nearing life support at this present time.
On the domestic front, we continue to disintegrate morally as a nation. In foreign policy, the USA is more disappointing to its allies and weak in the eyes of its enemies than possibly any point in our 240 year history.
Which brings us to Election 2016–a turning point for the US and the world.
Don’t assume a wrong idea about the title above. It’s a play on words.
What will bring about the reviving of America?
One of the drawbacks to learning the Spanish language through secular institutions is that they don’t teach you religious words. I took Spanish for five years in junior high and high school. Then, as a Christian missionary, I began traveling to Central and South America and tried to use the language I’d learned.
I did pretty well on the basics. But I’d never been taught important words like Jesus Christ (Jesus Cristo), the Holy Spirit (Espiritu Santo), repentance (arrepentimiento) sin (pecado) and faith (fe). (I should have known “fe” because it’s part of the name of the capital city of New Mexico: Santa Fe =Holy Faith).
There was another important word I didn’t know that we currently associate with a certain candidate for president of the United States.
His name is Ted Cruz. Both he and his surname are Hispanic. You might be able to guess the meaning of his name just by looking at it.
Cruz means “Cross.” It’s a reference to the wooden Cross that Jesus Christ died upon to save us from our sins.
So the current senator from Texas is Ted Cross, or “Ted of the Cross.”
I want to apply that meaning in an unusual way to the presidential election this week.
If you are following the political scene, watching the debates, and reading various media articles, you are undoubtedly aware that businessman Donald Trump is in the driver’s seat for securing the Republican nomination for president.
The Republican field started with seventeen qualified candidates–what many call the “deepest bench” ever of good men and women who could serve as POTUS. Thirteen of that group never gained traction and are sitting on the sidelines.
Only four remain.
During the initial winnowing, Trump soared based on his business/wealth/entertainment stature as an outsider who listened to the anger of the Republican (and American) electorate. He refreshingly decried the political establishment. He rightly railed against open borders, the lobbyist gravy train, declining religious freedom, and the tyranny of political correctness.
His blunt style and powerful personality quickly won over about a third of the Republican primary voters, including many Christians and evangelical leaders.
In the beginning, I, too, was fascinated by him.
But over time it became apparent that 1) Donald Trump knew very little about faith in Christ, 2) His character was extremely childish and offensive, 3) His “conservative principles” were, at the least, suspect, 4) Some of his businesses practices were dubious, and 4) Most people liked him because he was a king-like figure who would channel their frustration with the DC elite.
To read more about Trump’s king-like appeal, I recommend “Christians Demand a King” by Bill Blankshaen.
If Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination or becomes president of the United States, there will be much more to say on this subject.
But back to the four-way race.
Here’s where the Republican delegate count stands today: Trump – 458. Cruz – 359, Rubio – 151, and Kasich – 54. A candidate needs 1237 to win.
So far, Donald Trump has won 14 states, Ted Cruz beat him in six states and Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, captured one state. If you are into the details, Trump has done the best in states with open primaries or caucuses where independents and dis-enfranchised Democrats can vote on the Republican side. Cruz has prevailed in most of the closed primaries.
Donald Trump seems to have a “high floor” or base of support that comes in at about 35%. In a four way race, this strong nucleus has propelled him to a dozen victories. In those races, the other three candidates have split up the remaining votes with Ted Cruz usually taking second as well as winning the six closed primaries.
Thus, there’s been a consistent 65% vote against Trump. Analysts call this his “low ceiling.” Most people believe in a two-way race, Donald Trump would lose–especially to Ted Cruz–who’s beaten him six times.
Which brings us to the pivotal moment in the race for president.
On Tuesday, voters in Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66) and a few other states will cast votes. Ohio and Florida are winner take all. Many people believe that if Donald Trump wins them both (165 delegates) then he will be well on his way to winning the Republican nomination outright or getting the delegates needed to deny him at the Cleveland convention.
I believe that Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich would all make good presidents who could point America in the right direction. Ted Cruz is my first choice. Rush Limbaugh says that Cruz is “the closest candidate to Ronald Reagan that we’ve seen in our lifetime.”
I agree.
Rubio is also a young, rising star. He’s a man of faith, good character, and excellent policies. He confessed this week that he shouldn’t have used Trump-like tactics to try and topple the front runner.
Humility is refreshing.
John Kasich has the best resume and experience of them all. He’s also a man of faith, compassion, and competence.
But the problem is that if all three stay in Tuesday’s Ohio and Florida primaries, it’s likely that Trump will win both states. It’s simple divide and conquer. Trump wins with his 35% core.
It’s possible that Kasich will win Ohio. He’s a popular governor there. But to make sure he gets enough votes, Cruz and Rubio should withdraw this week and tell their supporters to go to Kasich.
It’s a little more iffy in Florida–Rubio’s home. Though he is a good closer, it appears that Rubio will lose Florida to Trump due to finishing poorly in last week’s primaries. For him to win, the same strategy should be used. Cruz and Kasich should withdraw and point their voters to Rubio. If they do, then, instead of dividing the non-Trump vote, Rubio will beat Trump and take the 99 delegates.
Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich should meet alone tonight after the debate and commit to that strategy.
But there’s another way.
From Erick Erickson:
“Rubio drops out [in Florida] and Cruz publicly declares Rubio his running mate. They barnstorm the nation with Rubio throwing the punches at Trump and Cruz talking about their vision for the future. They crisscross Florida raising voter awareness that voters need to vote for Cruz. They go to Missouri, North Carolina, etc.”
“Once they get through March 15th barnstorming the country together, they divide up the states with Rubio going as Cruz’s surrogate. Rubio hits New England. Cruz goes elsewhere. They have some joint events together.”
“Doing so shifts the conversation. Doing so forces voters to pay attention to the changed dynamic. And they head to Cleveland with either 1237 delegates for Cruz or at least more than Trump. It gives them a head start on having a general election ticket, which gives them an advantage over the Democrats.”
“In the process they unite the party and they beat Trump. In the process they start making the case against Hillary.”
“It can be done. It is possible. But the Marco Rubio supporters have to dare to believe and be willing to set aside grievances with Cruz to win.”
I’ve felt from the beginning a Ted Cruz-Marco Rubio ticket would be the best choice to lead America forward. The’re both young, articulate, minorities, faith-filled and principled men who would make a powerful Dream Team.
They’d also unite the Republican Party. Cruz is the outsider who will do even more than Trump to change Washington. Rubio would make a wonderful peace-maker in Congress.
But here’s the difficulty. It will take the “way of the Cross” to get there.
What does the cross of Jesus Christ represent? It speaks of sacrifice, humility, laying down your rights, and suffering to achieve the greater good.
Reviving America will require nothing less. In this scenario, Ted Cruz must be humble enough to withdraw in Ohio and pick Rubio as his running mate. Rubio has to humbly realize that his path to the White House has dimmed and be willing to sacrifice the top job for the present (his day may come).
They must both go in the opposite spirit against Donald Trump. All of them, especially Marco Rubio, must make the Jesus-like choice to lay down his dreams for the good of the nation.
Let’s go a step further. I believe if either of them humbly take the second spot then victory can be achieved. Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz. There are different strengths to both teams.
But in each case, one must take a step of humility.
Up until now, I’ve admired both of them for their faith and perseverance. But reviving America requires more than faith. It demands humility, sacrifice and death to self.
And we shouldn’t just be pointing at them. What can I do today, this week, this month, this year to go the way of the cross in my own life? What do I need to change? Where is humility and sacrifice required in God’s unfolding plans for me and you?
Let’s pray for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and practice humility in our own lives. The first condition of 2 Chronicles 7:14 is “If my people will humble themselves…”
That’s the opening key to revival.
It’s the way of the Cross.