Why Do the Democrats Hold an Electoral College Advantage?
As the 2016 US presidential race moves into the final ninety days, there’s been a lot of talk about the Democratic Party’s Electoral College edge that could lead Hillary Clinton to victory.
This advantage is well known, but I’ve never heard anyone explain it Did it just emerge out of nowhere? Did the Dems buy off some states that they now hold in their pocket? Or is there something we can learn about the Electoral College that might give us our marching orders?
Much is at stake in the 2016 contest and beyond. So why do the Democrats hold an Electoral College advantage?
First of all, let talk about the US Electoral College of which most American voters know very little.
It’s an institution that elects the President and VP every four years. Citizens do not directly elect the president or the vice president. Instead, they elect representatives called “electors”, who generally pledge to vote for the leaders their states have chosen via the popular vote.
Electors are apportioned to each of the 50 states as well as to the District of Columbia. The number of electors in each state is equal to the number of members of Congress to which the state is entitled, while the Twenty-third Amendment grants the District of Columbia the same number of electors as the least populous state, currently three.
Therefore, there are currently 538 electors, corresponding to the 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus the three additional electors from the District of Columbia. The Constitution bars any federal official, elected or appointed, from being an elector.
Except for the electors in Maine and Nebraska, electors are elected on a “winner-take-all” basis. That is, all electors pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in a state become electors for that state. Maine and Nebraska use the “congressional district method”, selecting one elector within each congressional district by popular vote and selecting the remaining two electors by a statewide popular vote.
The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) for the office of president is elected to that office.
The Twelfth Amendment also provides for what happens if the Electoral College fails to elect a president or vice president. If no candidate receives a majority for president, then the House of Representatives will select the president, with each state delegation (instead of each representative) having only one vote.
If no candidate receives a majority for vice president, then the Senate will select the vice president, with each senator having one vote. On four occasions, most recently in 2000, the Electoral College system has resulted in the election of a candidate who did not receive the most popular votes in the election (George W. Bush).
Recently, a Republican strategist suggested that John Kasich choose a mainstream Democrat from another state and run a “Unity Ticket” against both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. He noted that if these two candidates win their home states, then neither Hillary nor Trump can reach 270 electoral votes, thus throwing the election to Congress as outlined above.)
That’s your civics lesson of the day.
Why did our founders set up this system instead of just using a direct vote of the people?
Because they were smart. They realized rightly that “direct democracy” easily devolves into mob rule and group think. They also didn’t want the bigger states dominating the little ones. That’s another form of tyranny by the masses. They wanted the smaller states to have a fair say–for their votes to be meaningful.
So the Electoral College was born. It’s really a brilliant design to balance the power of large and small.
This brings us to the advantage of the Democratic Party in the Electoral College. Here’s the math to make it simple:
- At the present time, eighteen states in America reliably vote Democrat in every presidential election. Those states are on the west coast and eastern seaboard–and include some very large states such as California and New York. These eighteen states–called the “Blue Wall”–contain 237 electoral votes–just 23 short of what’s needed to win.
- Another fourteen states–most of which are in the Mid-west and South have reliably voted Republican for years. But they are states with smaller populations and thus smaller Electoral College votes. The red States make up 101 electoral votes.
This gives the Democratic Party a huge advantage. Their candidate, unless they’re a murderer or spouse-beater, has a pretty strong lock on 247 electoral votes. They only need to snag a few more states–like Ohio and Florida–or any other combination of smaller states to win.
On the other hand, the Republican standard-bearer needs to run the table of many states to add enough electoral votes to their 101 to triumph.
Thus the “Blue Wall” electoral “lock” of the Democrats. This has been true of every presidential election since Ronald Reagan swept 49 states in 1988. Since that time, the “Blue Wall” has emerged to frustrate many Republican candidates for president.
Why is this so?
Here is the reality behind the electoral math.
1. America is in a world view battle in which the Judeo-Christian worldview is being overtaken by the secular/atheist worldview.
In terms of colors, biblical faith equals red and secular progressive equals blue. Over the past five decades more people have become secular than have been born again in Christ.
2. Secular group think has mushroomed in the urban cities of the west and east coasts.
Take my own state of Washington. For the past few decades, if you color a map of Washington by the votes of each county, then your map would look almost entirely red (Judeo-Christian) except for a blue circle in King County (secular) where Seattle is located. By glancing at the map you might think that Washington is a Red State with a blue dot. But, over half of the state’s population lives in that King County blue circle–so WA is usually locked down for the Dems.
Same is true of Oregon (Portland dominating the redness of the rest of the state), and also California where secular, urban Los Angeles gives the country’s most populous state a definite blue edge.
It’s assumed by most people that Hillary Clinton will win this secular “Left Coast.” Urban folks near the Pacific Ocean have tended to turn away from God, biblical morality and traditional values.
The same is true of most of the city-dwellers of the east coast–where much of the national population lies. Big urban states like New York and New Jersey are Democratic strongholds, and the other cities in other eastern and Midwestern states have become breeding grounds for Democratic votes.
3. The secularizing of the public schools (latter 20th century) and the radical atheism that now rules in academia on a collegiate level is a huge mega-phone for atheism.
Most of our colleges, both public (i.e. state universities) and private (Ivy League Schools) are in the cities growing humanist/secularist philosophy like a sociological cancer. They are also churning out “blue votes” by focusing on humanist causes and bashing those who believe in God and share conservative values.
The atheists have understood the following maxim better than God-fearing people: The philosophy of the schools in one generation will be the philosophy of government in the next.
4. Most of the mainstream media emanates from the cities and multiplies the liberal bias.
Think of the power of Hollywood in the west and Manhattan in the east. The majority of the media outlets in these areas pump out secular progressive news slants on a daily basis ridiculing Christians, advocating for abortion, promoting sexual deviancy, pushing for bgger government, and pointing the culture to man-made solutions instead of humble submission to a Higher Power.
The media are primary sponsors of the growing “Blue Wall.”
5. Human depravity makes it easier to be selfish, secular, and me-oriented rather than developing the strength of godly character.
It’s easier to sin than to be virtuous and self-controlled. So it’s easier to be a Democrat who wants the government to give us everything (like free college education) than to be a Republican and believes you need to work for it and pay for it yourself.
Being liberal caters to the flesh. Judeo-Christians values require character and self-control.
6. There is a devil and a satanic kingdom who are conspiring to bring down the heritage and exceptionalism of the United States through atheist propaganda.
We are not just fighting human words. There is a demonic contingent behind the issues that are trying to destroy both people and nations.
What must the people of God do to knock down the Blue “Iron Curtain”?
First, understand how it was built. Second, pray for God’s awakening of his people to do his will on earth. Third, share our faith with passion as never before! Fourth, possess a greater long-range vision for our neighborhoods, schools, universities, the media and all aspects of government than the other side does.
May God help us.
Ron, you mention that the dems have a lock pretty much on 347 votes, 23 short of what is needed to win. You mention that twice. I think you mean 247 votes instead of 347.
Thanks for your blog.